Introduction: Why Holiday Book Sales Matter
The holiday season is the single most important sales window for the global publishing and book retail industry. November and December account for nearly a quarter of annual trade book sales in many markets, as consumers purchase books as gifts, stock up for winter reading, or take advantage of seasonal discounts. For wholesalers, publishers, and retailers, understanding the 2025 holiday retail outlook is critical for forecasting, inventory planning, and marketing strategy.
The good news? All indicators suggest that 2025 will be another strong holiday season for global trade book sales, fueled by growth in fiction, continued demand for physical formats, and AI-powered retail innovations. But with that optimism comes complexity: pricing pressures, supply chain uncertainties, and shifting consumer habits will all shape outcomes.
This article explores the global retail outlook for 2025, with a special focus on trade books, and what it means for industry stakeholders like Bookazine.
Global Retail Holiday Forecast for 2025
Retail analysts forecast robust growth across sectors.
Salesforce projects $260 billion in global online sales and $1.6 trillion in in-store purchases during the 2025 holiday season. While this projection spans all consumer goods, books traditionally track closely with retail trends since they are affordable, giftable, and timeless.
In the U.S., the National Retail Federation (NRF) reported record holiday spending in 2024: $994.1 billion in November and December, a 4% increase from 2023. This momentum is expected to continue into 2025, with projections for mid-single-digit growth. Globally, retail demand in emerging markets—including India, Brazil, and Southeast Asia—is expected to outpace Western Europe, where inflation continues to pressure consumer spending.
Key takeaway: Holiday sales are set to rise across the board, and books—long a staple of holiday gifting—are positioned to benefit.
The Role of Books in Holiday Retail
Books remain one of the most popular holiday purchases worldwide, consistently ranking among the top five most gifted items. Their relatively low cost, broad appeal across demographics, and personalizable nature make them an ideal seasonal gift. From children’s picture books to glossy coffee-table titles to collectible box sets, publishers strategically release major titles in Q4 to capture this surge.
In 2024, Nielsen BookScan reported that fiction sales surged globally, offsetting declines in non-fiction categories. This momentum will likely carry into 2025, especially in genres like romantasy, thrillers, and cozy mysteries. Giftable formats—special editions, boxed sets, illustrated hardcovers—also drive sales during the holidays.
For wholesalers and retailers: stocking diverse, curated selections for holiday displays is crucial to capturing gift shoppers.
Holiday 2025 Book Market Drivers
Several factors are expected to shape the global book sales landscape in Q4 2025:
Fiction’s Continued Dominance
Fiction—particularly fantasy, romance, and cross-genre “romantasy”—has been a global driver of growth. Fueled by BookTok and social media virality, breakout authors often see their titles sell out in both frontlist and backlist categories. Expect fiction to lead the holiday charge again in 2025, with major publishers timing blockbuster releases for October and November.
Physical Books Still Rule
Despite the steady growth of eBooks and audiobooks, physical books remain the preferred holiday gift. Print books accounted for over 84% of sales by format in 2024 (Grand View Research). During the holidays, hardcover gift editions, children’s picture books, and deluxe box sets gain even greater prominence.
AI-Powered Retail
Retailers are using AI to personalize recommendations, optimize inventory, and forecast demand. In 2025, AI-driven merchandising will mean more targeted book displays online and in-store, matching readers with titles that fit their tastes. This could drive higher conversion rates during peak shopping windows.
Pricing and Inflation
While inflation has eased in many regions, book prices have risen due to higher paper and printing costs. According to NielsenIQ, global book prices rose by about 4% in 2024. For 2025, affordability will be a key consideration: expect publishers to balance high-quality collectible editions with budget-friendly paperbacks to meet diverse consumer needs.
Global Supply Chain Watch
Unlike 2020–2022, when supply chain bottlenecks disrupted holiday availability, 2025 is expected to see relatively stable logistics. However, reliance on Chinese printing remains a concern. Any slowdown in imports could delay holiday releases, especially in illustrated and specialty formats.
Regional Projections
United States
The U.S. remains the largest book market globally, and holiday sales are expected to rise modestly in 2025. Fiction leads growth, while children’s books and graphic novels remain strong holiday categories. Institutional channels (schools, libraries) will see steady purchasing, but retail is the main growth engine.
Europe
The U.K. and France are strongholds for holiday book sales, though economic pressures and high inflation in parts of Europe could temper growth. However, niche genres like “new romance” in France and the ongoing popularity of Manga across the continent should provide strong lifts.
Asia-Pacific
China’s domestic book market is huge, but exports play a major role. In Japan and South Korea, Manga and graphic novels dominate. India’s middle-class expansion is driving English-language book sales, making it a holiday growth hotspot.
Latin America
Markets like Brazil and Mexico are seeing stronger demand for affordable titles, especially children’s books and translations of global bestsellers. Growth potential is high, though distribution challenges remain.
Strategic Insights for Publishers and Wholesalers
Stock Early and Diversify Inventory
Retailers will look to wholesalers like Bookazine to provide broad, curated stock—including both mass-appeal blockbusters and niche gems.
Capitalize on Virality
Social media trends, especially TikTok’s BookTok, will continue to dictate surprise bestsellers. Wholesalers should monitor trending titles to supply rapid replenishments.
Leverage AI and Data
Using predictive analytics to anticipate demand by region, genre, and format will give wholesalers a competitive edge in serving retailers during the high-pressure holiday window.
Balance Formats and Pricing
Offer a mix of premium editions and accessible options to appeal to budget-conscious consumers without losing out on aspirational gift buyers.
Prepare for Global Disruptions
While logistics appear stable, contingency plans for printing or import slowdowns should be in place.
A Strong Holiday Season Ahead
The 2025 holiday season promises to be a healthy one for the global trade book market. With overall retail sales projected to rise, fiction continuing to outperform, and consumers eager for both collectible and accessible titles, publishers and wholesalers are well-positioned for growth.
Challenges like inflation, global printing dependencies, and competitive retail environments will require agility. But for companies like Bookazine, the combination of deep industry expertise, diverse title offerings, and strong global networks provides a strong foundation to thrive in the most important season of the year.
Holiday 2025 won’t just be about books as products—it will be about books as experiences, gifts, and connections, cementing their place at the heart of global retail.
